The future of cars will herald an era of cheaper plastic, according to research from IHS Markit.
As electric-vehicles take the place of internal combustion in light vehicles, and the rise of the autonomous automobile brings about ‘on-demand’ motoring, the role of petrochemicals will diminish in daily driving.
The effect will be a glut of petrochemicals derivatives, such as petrols and the polymers for engine parts, which could be turned to powering chemical products, creating cheaper and more diverse high-performance products.
Autonomous cars - the future of motoring?
The IHS Markit research predicts that by 2040, total vehicle miles travelled will have grown to an all-time high of around 11 billion miles per year - in China, Europe, India and the United States, but cars sales will have dramatically slowed.
Passengers will ‘buy mobility’, using ride-hailing and car share services.
Daniel Yergin, IHS Markit vice chairman, said: “The shift is just beginning. By 2040, the changes in transportation will be accelerating in a way that will be visible on roads and highways around the world. The pace and degree of this dynamic shift will have significant implications for industry, for public transportation systems and for how people get to work and live their lives – and spend their money on transport.”
Oil’s monopoly as a transport fuel will erode, though it will remain a major part of the automotive landscape, the study says. Market share for cars primarily powered by petrol and diesel will still account for 62 per cent of new cars in 2040 in the four major key markets (down from 98 percent in 2016) with a total of 54 million new vehicle sales in 2040, according to the study’s baseline scenario. In this scenario, global oil demand still rises from 98 mbd today to 115 mbd in 2040.
Anthony Palmer, Vice President, Chemical Consulting for IHS Markit: “The move from combustion engines to electric vehicles offers one example of the big impacts that will result from coming changes in the automotive industry.
The growth of electric vehicles as a share of new vehicle sales means decreases in demand for chemicals and plastics materials traditionally used in ‘under-the-hood” applications, including engineering plastics, that can withstand high temperatures, as well as for commodity plastics, used in gasoline tanks. But the transition to EVs also means new opportunities for chemical companies, which are preparing for the changes by investing significantly in future production for battery materials.”